Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Parc des Princes, Paris
The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Monaco. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 223-point Elo edge (2,285 vs 2,062).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paris Saint Germain have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Monaco have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens(away) | 0-1 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cercle Brugge(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Paris Saint Germain win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Monaco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Monaco | UEFA Champions League |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Monaco 2-3 Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Monaco 1-0 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Monaco | Trophée des Champions |
Last archived meeting: Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco on Mar 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paris Saint Germain score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Monaco score 1.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Monaco | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paris Saint Germain sit 1st in Ligue 1 (76 points from 34 matches) and Monaco sit 7th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 74 | 29 | 76 |
| 7 | Monaco | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 60 | 54 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
- The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 69%, against 18% for a draw and 13% for Monaco.
- Where and when is Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco played?
- Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Parc des Princes, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.