Paris Saint Germain vs Marseille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 19Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Parc des Princes, Paris
The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Marseille. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,516 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Marseille?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 276-point Elo edge (2,364 vs 2,087).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Paris Saint Germain vs Marseille
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3- 11M. Akliouche
- 10O. Dembélé
- 9Ferran Torres
- 87João Neves
- 17Vitinha
- 33W. Zaïre-Emery
- 2A. Hakimi
- 51W. Pacho
- 5Marquinhos
- 25Nuno Mendes
- 39M. Safonov
Marseille
4-2-3-1- 9A. Gouiri
- 8H. Abdelli
- 14Igor Paixão
- 7A. Gomes
- 77A. Harit
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 33Emerson
- 21N. Aguerd
- 4C. Egan-Riley
- 22T. Weah
- 12J. de Lange
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 06:57 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paris Saint Germain have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Marseille have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Le Mans(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Slovan Bratislava(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Paris Saint Germain wins, 1 draw, 1 Marseille win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Marseille | Trophée des Champions |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Marseille 1-0 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Marseille 0-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain on Sep 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Paris Saint Germain score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.9 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Marseille | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paris Saint Germain sit 6th in Ligue 1 (11 points from 6 matches) and Marseille sit 14th (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
| 14 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
A question about Paris Saint Germain vs Marseille?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paris Saint Germain vs Marseille?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 73%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Marseille.
- Where and when is Paris Saint Germain vs Marseille played?
- Paris Saint Germain vs Marseille is played on February 7, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Parc des Princes, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.