Monza vs AS Roma: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)U-Power Stadium, Monza
The Footlab model makes AS Roma the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Monza. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monza vs AS Roma?
AS Roma starts as the favourite with a 208-point Elo edge (2,169 vs 1,960).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monza have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; AS Roma have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-4 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Padova(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 4-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Monza win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 AS Roma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2025 | AS Roma 4-0 Monza | Serie A |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Monza 1-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Monza 1-4 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Oct 22, 2023 | AS Roma 1-0 Monza | Serie A |
| May 3, 2023 | Monza 1-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Aug 30, 2022 | AS Roma 3-0 Monza | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Monza score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; AS Roma score 2.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 2.0 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| AS Roma | 2.3 | 1.4 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monza sit 19th in Serie A (0 points from 1 matches) and AS Roma sit 1st (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Roma | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monza vs AS Roma?
- The Footlab model makes AS Roma the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Monza.
- Where and when is Monza vs AS Roma played?
- Monza vs AS Roma is played on January 31, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at U-Power Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.