Monza vs Genoa: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC)U-Power Stadium, Monza
The Footlab AI model makes Monza the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Genoa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Monza wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,373 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monza vs Genoa?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Monza (1,897) and Genoa (1,895).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Monza vs Genoa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Monza
3-4-2-1- 9Gustavo Varela
- 7Ricardo Mangas
- 19S. Birindelli
- 14E. Akinsanmiro
- 90M. Folorunsho
- 16C. Ngonge
- 22E. Zeballos
- 3L. Lucchesi
- 60E. Kouadio
- 44A. Carboni
- 1N. Törnqvist
Genoa
3-4-2-1- 18M. Osmajić
- 32M. Frendrup
- 3K. Ehizibue
- 77M. Ellertsson
- 10Junior Messias
- 92S. El Shaarawy
- 25H. Traorè
- 5L. Østigård
- 34S. Otoa
- 22J. Vásquez
- 1J. Bijlow
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:55 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monza have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Genoa have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sassuolo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Rapid(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Monza wins, 0 draws, 2 Genoa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2025 | Genoa 2-0 Monza | Serie A |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Monza 0-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Genoa 2-3 Monza | Serie A |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Monza 1-0 Genoa | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Monza score 1.8 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Genoa score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 1.8 | 1.9 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Genoa | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monza sit 16th in Serie A (4 points from 6 matches) and Genoa sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
A question about Monza vs Genoa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monza vs Genoa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Monza the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Genoa.
- Where and when is Monza vs Genoa played?
- Monza vs Genoa is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at U-Power Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.