Moreirense vs Maritimo: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
The Footlab model makes Moreirense the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Maritimo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moreirense vs Maritimo?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Moreirense (2,005) and Maritimo (1,995).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moreirense have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Maritimo have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Machico(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Moreirense win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Maritimo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2022 | Moreirense 0-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 1, 2021 | Maritimo 0-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 7, 2021 | Maritimo 0-2 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 25, 2020 | Moreirense 2-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 8, 2020 | Moreirense 2-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 28, 2019 | Maritimo 2-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Moreirense vs Maritimo on Mar 6, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Moreirense score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Maritimo score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Maritimo | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moreirense sit 16th in Primeira Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Maritimo sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Maritimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs Maritimo?
- The Footlab model makes Moreirense the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Maritimo.
- Where and when is Moreirense vs Maritimo played?
- Moreirense vs Maritimo is played on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.