Mortágua vs UD da Serra: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 17Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Gandarada, Mortágua
The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Mortágua. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,800 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mortágua vs UD da Serra?
On Elo ratings, Mortágua has 1,838 points and UD da Serra 1,896.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mortágua vs UD da Serra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mortágua
4-3-3- 10João Pais
- 45S. Camara
- 27J. Rianco
- 16A. Sena
- 7Artur Simionato
- 23I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes
- 2H. Lopes
- 39J. Ferrao
- 5C. Silva
- 3T. Pereira
- 55A. Verdade
UD da Serra
Not enough data to predict the UD da Serra lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 06:40 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mortágua have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; UD da Serra have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fazendense(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 1-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amora(away) | 4-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Mortágua win, 3 draws, 1 UD da Serra win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | UD da Serra 1-1 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Mortágua 1-0 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 17, 2025 | UD da Serra 0-0 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 5, 2023 | Mortágua 3-3 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 23, 2022 | UD da Serra 1-0 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: UD da Serra vs Mortágua on Sep 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mortágua score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; UD da Serra score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortágua | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| UD da Serra | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mortágua sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (10 points from 4 matches) and UD da Serra sit 5th (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | UD da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
A question about Mortágua vs UD da Serra?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mortágua vs UD da Serra?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Mortágua.
- Where and when is Mortágua vs UD da Serra played?
- Mortágua vs UD da Serra is played on February 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Gandarada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.