Benfica Castelo Branco vs Mortágua: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 18Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro, Castelo Branco
The Footlab AI model makes Mortágua the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Benfica Castelo Branco. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mortágua wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 5,094 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica Castelo Branco vs Mortágua?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Benfica Castelo Branco (1,842) and Mortágua (1,857).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Mortágua
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Benfica Castelo Branco
4-3-3- 85N. Gaspar
- 16A. Vagarinho
- 11Sacra
- 23G. Isaias
- 6David Peres
- 21J. Cruz
- 2Pedro Vieira
- 4P. Correia
- 15F. Celestino
- 22D. Preto
- 1D. Romana
Mortágua
4-3-3- 10João Pais
- 45S. Camara
- 27J. Rianco
- 16A. Sena
- 7Artur Simionato
- 23I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes
- 2H. Lopes
- 39J. Ferrao
- 5C. Silva
- 3T. Pereira
- 55A. Verdade
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 07:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica Castelo Branco have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Mortágua have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | O Elvas(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(home) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2026 | FC Alverca II(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Naval 1893(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Benfica Castelo Branco wins, 3 draws, 0 Mortágua wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mortágua 0-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco 3-1 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Mortágua 1-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Mortágua 0-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Benfica Castelo Branco 2-0 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Mortágua vs Benfica Castelo Branco on Oct 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mortágua score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 1.2 | 1.8 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Mortágua | 0.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica Castelo Branco sit 6th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (10 points from 7 matches) and Mortágua sit 3rd (14 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mortágua | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
A question about Benfica Castelo Branco vs Mortágua?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Mortágua?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mortágua the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Benfica Castelo Branco.
- Where and when is Benfica Castelo Branco vs Mortágua played?
- Benfica Castelo Branco vs Mortágua is played on February 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Vale do Romeiro, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.