Morton vs Raith Rovers: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Cappielow Park, Greenock
The Footlab model makes Raith Rovers the favourite at 47%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for Morton. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morton vs Raith Rovers?
Raith Rovers starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,811 vs 1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Raith Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Partick(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Peterhead(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Morton win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Raith Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Raith Rovers 3-2 Morton | Championship |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Morton 0-0 Raith Rovers | Championship |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Raith Rovers 1-1 Morton | Championship |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Morton 0-1 Raith Rovers | Championship |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Raith Rovers 1-1 Morton | Championship |
| Mar 25, 2025 | Morton 3-3 Raith Rovers | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Raith Rovers vs Morton on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Morton score 0.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Raith Rovers score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 0.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Raith Rovers | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morton sit 9th in Championship (0 points from 3 matches) and Raith Rovers sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Raith Rovers | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Morton | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morton vs Raith Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Raith Rovers the favourite at 47%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for Morton.
- Where and when is Morton vs Raith Rovers played?
- Morton vs Raith Rovers is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Cappielow Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.