Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir
The Footlab model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Dunfermline. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Stenhousemuir (1,811) and Dunfermline (1,787).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stenhousemuir have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Dunfermline have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen's Park(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Morton(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Raith Rovers(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Livingston(home) | 0-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Livingston(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ross County(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | ST Mirren(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Stenhousemuir win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Dunfermline win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | Dunfermline 3-0 Stenhousemuir | FA Cup |
| Jul 24, 2021 | Dunfermline 4-1 Stenhousemuir | League Cup |
| Mar 5, 2016 | Dunfermline 5-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Feb 6, 2016 | Stenhousemuir 0-3 Dunfermline | League One |
| Dec 19, 2015 | Dunfermline 1-0 Stenhousemuir | League One |
| Sep 19, 2015 | Stenhousemuir 0-5 Dunfermline | League One |
Last archived meeting: Dunfermline vs Stenhousemuir on Jan 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Stenhousemuir score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Dunfermline score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Dunfermline | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stenhousemuir sit 1st in Championship (7 points from 3 matches) and Dunfermline sit 8th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Dunfermline | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline?
- The Footlab model makes Stenhousemuir the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Dunfermline.
- Where and when is Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline played?
- Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ochilview Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.