Mosta vs Gzira United: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Charles Abela Memorial Stadium, Mosta
The Footlab model makes Mosta the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Gzira United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mosta vs Gzira United?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Mosta (1,427) and Gzira United (1,464).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mosta have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Gzira United have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Balzan FC(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Hamrun Spartans(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Naxxar Lions(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Birkirkara(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Hibernians(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Valletta FC(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Birkirkara(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Marsaxlokk(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Valletta FC(away) | 1-2 | FA Trophy |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Floriana(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mosta win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Gzira United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | Gzira United 2-1 Mosta | FA Trophy |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Gzira United 1-0 Mosta | Premier League |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Gzira United 1-0 Mosta | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Mosta 3-4 Gzira United | Premier League |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Mosta 3-1 Gzira United | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Mosta 1-0 Gzira United | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Mosta score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Gzira United score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mosta | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Gzira United | 1.0 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mosta sit 5th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Gzira United sit 12th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mosta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Gzira United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mosta vs Gzira United?
- The Footlab model makes Mosta the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Gzira United.
- Where and when is Mosta vs Gzira United played?
- Mosta vs Gzira United is played on September 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Charles Abela Memorial Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.