Motherwell vs Dundee Utd: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 24Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Fir Park, Motherwell
The Footlab model makes Motherwell the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Dundee Utd. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motherwell vs Dundee Utd?
Motherwell starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,971 vs 1,838).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motherwell have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Dundee Utd have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | SC Freiburg(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Falkirk(home) | 0-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dundee(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 0-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 0-4 | Premiership |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Rangers(home) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Motherwell win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Dundee Utd win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Motherwell 2-0 Dundee Utd | Premiership |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Dundee Utd 0-0 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Motherwell 2-0 Dundee Utd | Premiership |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Dundee Utd 1-0 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Motherwell 4-3 Dundee Utd | Premiership |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Dundee Utd 1-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Motherwell vs Dundee Utd on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Motherwell score 1.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Dundee Utd score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Dundee Utd | 1.2 | 1.5 | 5 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motherwell sit 4th in Premiership (4 points from 2 matches) and Dundee Utd sit 11th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs Dundee Utd?
- The Footlab model makes Motherwell the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Dundee Utd.
- Where and when is Motherwell vs Dundee Utd played?
- Motherwell vs Dundee Utd is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Fir Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.