Motherwell vs Kilmarnock: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Fir Park, Motherwell
The Footlab AI model makes Motherwell the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Kilmarnock. The most likely score is 1-1. If Motherwell wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,605 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motherwell vs Kilmarnock?
On Elo ratings, Motherwell has 1,871 points and Kilmarnock 1,808.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Motherwell vs Kilmarnock
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Motherwell
4-2-3-1- 47S. Palmer-Houlden
- 71J. Hodge
- 18Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
- 19I. Said
- 8L. Fadinger
- 63D. Levitt
- 45M. Emmanuel
- 5M. Moormann
- 7T. Sparrow
- 3J. Girdwood-Reich
- 1A. Paulsen
Kilmarnock
3-4-1-2- 9J. Hugill
- 10T. John-Jules
- 18T. Lowery
- 11G. Kiltie
- 36A. Tshibola
- 2J. Brandon
- 8E. Ring
- 14G. Stanger
- 4C. McCarthy
- 6R. Deas
- 58N. Mantl
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 09:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motherwell have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Kilmarnock have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | ST Mirren(home) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Oct 28, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 2-2 | Premiership |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | Premiership |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | ST Johnstone(home) | 2-2 | Premiership |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Dundee(away) | 1-3 | Premiership |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Falkirk(away) | 0-3 | Premiership |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 3-2 | Premiership |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-3 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Motherwell wins, 1 draw, 2 Kilmarnock wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Kilmarnock 3-2 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Motherwell 4-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Kilmarnock 1-3 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Motherwell 2-2 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| May 14, 2025 | Motherwell 3-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Kilmarnock 2-0 Motherwell | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Kilmarnock vs Motherwell on Oct 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Motherwell score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Kilmarnock score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Kilmarnock | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motherwell sit 9th in Premiership (12 points from 12 matches) and Kilmarnock sit 11th (9 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Motherwell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 12 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 9 |
A question about Motherwell vs Kilmarnock?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs Kilmarnock?
- The Footlab AI model makes Motherwell the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Kilmarnock.
- Where and when is Motherwell vs Kilmarnock played?
- Motherwell vs Kilmarnock is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Fir Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.