ST Mirren vs Heart Of Midlothian: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The SMISA Stadium, Paisley
The Footlab model makes Heart Of Midlothian the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for ST Mirren. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win ST Mirren vs Heart Of Midlothian?
Heart Of Midlothian starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (2,023 vs 1,852).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, ST Mirren have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Heart Of Midlothian have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-5 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ST Johnstone(home) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Falkirk(away) | 2-0 | Premiership |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Dunfermline(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | East Kilbride(home) | 4-3 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 6-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dundee Utd(home) | 4-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-6 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 ST Mirren win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Heart Of Midlothian win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | ST Mirren 1-0 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian 2-0 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| Oct 29, 2025 | ST Mirren 2-2 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| Aug 16, 2025 | ST Mirren 1-1 Heart Of Midlothian | League Cup |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Heart Of Midlothian 3-1 ST Mirren | Premiership |
| Feb 10, 2025 | ST Mirren 1-1 Heart Of Midlothian | FA Cup |
Last archived meeting: ST Mirren vs Heart Of Midlothian on Feb 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
ST Mirren score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Heart Of Midlothian score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Mirren | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
ST Mirren sit 3rd in Premiership (6 points from 2 matches) and Heart Of Midlothian sit 5th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for ST Mirren vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- The Footlab model makes Heart Of Midlothian the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for ST Mirren.
- Where and when is ST Mirren vs Heart Of Midlothian played?
- ST Mirren vs Heart Of Midlothian is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The SMISA Stadium, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.