Muharraq vs Al Ahli: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī (Bahrain National Stadium), Riffa
The Footlab model makes Muharraq the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for Al Ahli. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Muharraq vs Al Ahli?
Muharraq starts as the favourite with a 284-point Elo edge (1,814 vs 1,530).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Muharraq have 13 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Al Ahli have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | A'Ali(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| May 11, 2026 | Khalidiya(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| May 4, 2026 | Al Najma(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Budaiya(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Al Riffa(home) | 2-1 | King's Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Budaiya(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| May 11, 2026 | Al-Hidd(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| May 5, 2026 | Sitra(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Al Riffa(home) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Bahrain SC(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Muharraq win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Al Ahli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Muharraq 2-1 Al Ahli | King's Cup |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Al Ahli 0-1 Muharraq | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Muharraq 3-0 Al Ahli | Premier League |
| May 17, 2025 | Al Ahli 2-1 Muharraq | Premier League |
| Jan 17, 2025 | Muharraq 3-2 Al Ahli | Premier League |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Al Ahli 2-2 Muharraq | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Muharraq score 2.4 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Al Ahli score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muharraq | 2.4 | 0.5 | 9 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
| Al Ahli | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Muharraq sit 1st in Premier League (55 points from 22 matches) and Al Ahli sit 7th (27 points from 22 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muharraq | 22 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 45 | 7 | 55 |
| 7 | Al Ahli | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Muharraq vs Al Ahli?
- The Footlab model makes Muharraq the favourite at 70%, against 20% for a draw and 10% for Al Ahli.
- Where and when is Muharraq vs Al Ahli played?
- Muharraq vs Al Ahli is played on August 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī (Bahrain National Stadium), in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.