Murom vs Tver: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 2Group 2 - 28Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Park 50, Murom
The Footlab model makes Murom the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Tver. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Murom vs Tver?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Murom (1,674) and Tver (1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Murom have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Tver have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Baltika II(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Yenisey II(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Metallurg Lipetsk(home) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(away) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny(home) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(away) | 0-4 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny(home) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dinamo Vologda(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo St. Petersburg(away) | 2-3 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cherepovets(home) | 5-0 | Second League - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Murom win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Tver win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Tver 1-0 Murom | Second League - Group 2 |
| Oct 8, 2022 | Tver 0-0 Murom | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 10, 2022 | Murom 1-0 Tver | Second League - Group 2 |
| May 28, 2022 | Murom 2-0 Tver | Second League - Group 2 |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Tver 0-0 Murom | Second League - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2021 | Tver 4-1 Murom | Second League - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Murom score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tver score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murom | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Tver | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Murom sit 4th in Second League - Group 2 (22 points from 11 matches) and Tver sit 11th (10 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Murom | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 38 |
| 4 | Murom | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 22 |
| 10 | Tver | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 34 | 22 |
| 11 | Tver | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 23 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Murom vs Tver?
- The Footlab model makes Murom the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Tver.
- Where and when is Murom vs Tver played?
- Murom vs Tver is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Park 50, in the Second League - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.