Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 2Group 2 - 28Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Nova Arena, Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg)
The Footlab model makes Zvezda St. Petersburg the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Cherepovets. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Zvezda St. Petersburg (1,587) and Cherepovets (1,626).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zvezda St. Petersburg have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Cherepovets have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Vologda(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Luki-Energiya(home) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baltika II(away) | 3-4 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Yenisey II(home) | 4-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dinamo St. Petersburg(away) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Tosno(away) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Spartak Moscow 2(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tver(away) | 0-5 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Iskra Smolensk(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Zvezda St. Petersburg win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Cherepovets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Cherepovets 0-2 Zvezda St. Petersburg | Second League - Group 2 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Cherepovets 2-2 Zvezda St. Petersburg | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 20, 2025 | Cherepovets 2-1 Zvezda St. Petersburg | Cup |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Zvezda St. Petersburg 4-1 Cherepovets | Second League - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Cherepovets vs Zvezda St. Petersburg on Jun 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Zvezda St. Petersburg score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Cherepovets score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zvezda St. Petersburg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Cherepovets | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zvezda St. Petersburg sit 9th in Second League - Group 2 (12 points from 11 matches) and Cherepovets sit 6th (19 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cherepovets | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
| 8 | Cherepovets | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 24 |
| 9 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| 11 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 24 | 26 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets?
- The Footlab model makes Zvezda St. Petersburg the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Cherepovets.
- Where and when is Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets played?
- Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Cherepovets is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Nova Arena, in the Second League - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.