MVV vs Jong AZ: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 5, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)De Geusselt, Maastricht
The Footlab AI model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for MVV. The most likely score is 1-1. If Jong AZ wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,383 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MVV vs Jong AZ?
Jong AZ starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,688 vs 1,585).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for MVV vs Jong AZ
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
MVV
4-2-3-1- 9T. Vinogradac
- 7L. Daneels
- 10O. Dumont
- 16R. Klaasen
- 18E. Sierra
- 24N. El Hamdaoui
- 6F. Dicke
- 17S. Wegen
- 22Sven Bouland
- 21D. Asante
- 1H. Wentges
Jong AZ
4-2-3-1- 9Jerolldino Armantrading
- 8J. Oerip
- 6R. Robbemond
- 10H. de Wit
- 11T. de Wit
- 7K. Toppenberg
- 2J. Zwart
- 3A. Natali
- 5K. Inge
- 4F. Andersen
- 1K. Zeggen
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MVV have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Jong AZ have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 1-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Waalwijk(away) | 1-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 0-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | FC Volendam(home) | 4-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Jong PSV U21(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 6-3 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 MVV wins, 1 draw, 2 Jong AZ wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Jong AZ 1-2 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Jong AZ 1-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 21, 2025 | MVV 1-3 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MVV 0-1 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 2, 2024 | Jong AZ 2-3 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| May 3, 2024 | Jong AZ 2-3 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
MVV score 1.3 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Jong AZ score 2.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Jong AZ | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MVV sit 7th in Eerste Divisie (16 points from 10 matches) and Jong AZ sit 11th (13 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MVV | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 16 |
| 11 | Jong AZ | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 13 |
A question about MVV vs Jong AZ?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MVV vs Jong AZ?
- The Footlab AI model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for MVV.
- Where and when is MVV vs Jong AZ played?
- MVV vs Jong AZ is played on March 5, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at De Geusselt, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.