VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 5, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Venlo
The Footlab model makes VVV Venlo the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
VVV Venlo starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,645 vs 1,529).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, VVV Venlo have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Jong Ajax have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Heracles(home) | 3-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Eupen(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fortuna Köln(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 4-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 VVV Venlo win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Jong Ajax win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | VVV Venlo 0-1 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Jong Ajax 2-4 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 7, 2025 | VVV Venlo 1-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Jong Ajax 0-1 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| May 3, 2024 | VVV Venlo 2-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 6, 2023 | Jong Ajax 3-0 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax on Mar 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
VVV Venlo score 1.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Jong Ajax score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV Venlo | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Jong Ajax | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
VVV Venlo sit 5th in Eerste Divisie (6 points from 3 matches) and Jong Ajax sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VVV Venlo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | VVV Venlo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax?
- The Footlab model makes VVV Venlo the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax played?
- VVV Venlo vs Jong Ajax is played on March 5, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.