NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 5, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Helmond Sport. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
NAC Breda starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (1,779 vs 1,582).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NAC Breda have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Helmond Sport have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jong Ajax(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | VVV Venlo(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | OFI(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Roda(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Gemert(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 NAC Breda win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Helmond Sport win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2024 | Helmond Sport 1-0 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 27, 2023 | NAC Breda 1-1 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Jan 13, 2023 | Helmond Sport 2-2 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 5, 2022 | NAC Breda 1-0 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 18, 2022 | Helmond Sport 4-0 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 27, 2021 | NAC Breda 1-0 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda on Jan 26, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
NAC Breda score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Helmond Sport score 0.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Helmond Sport | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NAC Breda sit 7th in Eerste Divisie (6 points from 3 matches) and Helmond Sport sit 16th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
- The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Helmond Sport.
- Where and when is NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport played?
- NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport is played on March 5, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Rat Verlegh Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.