Guimaraes vs Nacional: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Nacional?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Guimaraes (2,079) and Nacional (1,987).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Nacional have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Guimaraes win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Nacional win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Nacional 2-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Guimaraes 2-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| May 3, 2025 | Nacional 1-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 23, 2024 | Guimaraes 2-2 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 26, 2021 | Nacional 1-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 21, 2021 | Guimaraes 3-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Nacional vs Guimaraes on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes sit 16th in Primeira Liga (0 points from 2 matches) and Nacional sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nacional | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 | Guimaraes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes vs Nacional?
- The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Guimaraes vs Nacional played?
- Guimaraes vs Nacional is played on August 23, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.