Nasaf vs Neftchi: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on September 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Markaziy Stadion, Qarshi
The Footlab model makes Neftchi the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Nasaf. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nasaf vs Neftchi?
Neftchi starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,866 vs 1,740).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nasaf have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Neftchi have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Navbahor(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Pakhtakor(home) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kokand-1912(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Olmaliq(away) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Qizilqum(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sogdiana(home) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 1-4 | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Andijan(away) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Qizilqum(home) | 5-0 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nasaf win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Neftchi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Neftchi 2-1 Nasaf | Super League |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Neftchi 1-0 Nasaf | Super League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Nasaf 0-0 Neftchi | Super League |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Neftchi 2-0 Nasaf | Super League |
| Jun 20, 2024 | Nasaf 1-0 Neftchi | Super League |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Nasaf 2-0 Neftchi | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Nasaf score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Neftchi score 2.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasaf | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Neftchi | 2.0 | 0.9 | 8 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nasaf sit 9th in Super League (14 points from 11 matches) and Neftchi sit 1st (28 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 28 |
| 1 | Neftchi | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 10 | 45 |
| 7 | Nasaf | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 25 |
| 9 | Nasaf | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nasaf vs Neftchi?
- The Footlab model makes Neftchi the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Nasaf.
- Where and when is Nasaf vs Neftchi played?
- Nasaf vs Neftchi is played on September 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Markaziy Stadion, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.