Bunyodkor vs Surkhon: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on September 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Milliy Stadium, Tashkent
The Footlab model makes Bunyodkor the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Surkhon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bunyodkor vs Surkhon?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Bunyodkor (1,627) and Surkhon (1,610).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bunyodkor have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Surkhon have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Kokand-1912(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Navbahor(away) | 3-4 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Olmaliq(home) | 2-3 | Super League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Pakhtakor(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pakhtakor(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Sogdiana(home) | 1-3 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Navbahor(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Kokand-1912(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Xorazm(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Bunyodkor win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Surkhon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2026 | Surkhon 0-0 Bunyodkor | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Surkhon 3-1 Bunyodkor | Super League |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Bunyodkor 3-1 Surkhon | Super League |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Surkhon 0-1 Bunyodkor | Super League |
| May 5, 2024 | Bunyodkor 0-2 Surkhon | Super League |
| Sep 29, 2023 | Bunyodkor 0-1 Surkhon | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Bunyodkor score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Surkhon score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bunyodkor | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Surkhon | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bunyodkor sit 5th in Super League (19 points from 11 matches) and Surkhon sit 12th (12 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bunyodkor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 19 |
| 12 | Surkhon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 12 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 27 | 19 |
| 14 | Surkhon | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bunyodkor vs Surkhon?
- The Footlab model makes Bunyodkor the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Surkhon.
- Where and when is Bunyodkor vs Surkhon played?
- Bunyodkor vs Surkhon is played on September 3, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Milliy Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.