Nations vs Diarra: prediction and stats
CAF Confederation Cup1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex, Abrankese
The Footlab model makes Nations the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Diarra. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nations vs Diarra?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Nations (1,588) and Diarra (1,605).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nations have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Diarra have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Dreams(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| May 24, 2026 | Karela(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Vision(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Young Apostles(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Heart of Lions(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Stade Malien Bamako(home) | 0-2 | Première Division |
| Jun 9, 2026 | US Bougouba(away) | 6-2 | Première Division |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Djoliba(home) | 1-2 | Première Division |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Afrique Football Élite(away) | 1-0 | Première Division |
| May 25, 2026 | ASKO(home) | 0-0 | Première Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Nations score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Diarra score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nations | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Diarra | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nations vs Diarra?
- The Footlab model makes Nations the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Diarra.
- Where and when is Nations vs Diarra played?
- Nations vs Diarra is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex, in the CAF Confederation Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.