Naval Reinosa vs Velarde: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Naval Reinosa the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Velarde. The most likely score is 1-1. If Naval Reinosa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 4,850 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 7, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naval Reinosa vs Velarde?
Naval Reinosa starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,674 vs 1,555).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Naval Reinosa vs Velarde
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Naval Reinosa
Not enough data to predict the Naval Reinosa lineup.
Velarde
Not enough data to predict the Velarde lineup.
Computed on November 7, 2026 at 09:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Naval Reinosa have 1 win, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Velarde have 1, 4 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Tropezón(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Castro(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Solares(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Selaya(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Laredo(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Torina(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sámano(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Naval Reinosa wins, 1 draw, 0 Velarde wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Velarde 0-0 Naval Reinosa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Velarde vs Naval Reinosa on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Naval Reinosa score 1.1 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 9; Velarde score 0.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval Reinosa | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1 | 5/9 | 8/9 |
| Velarde | 0.7 | 2.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naval Reinosa sit 18th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (5 points from 9 matches) and Velarde sit 17th (5 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Velarde | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 5 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 5 |
A question about Naval Reinosa vs Velarde?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naval Reinosa vs Velarde?
- The Footlab AI model makes Naval Reinosa the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Velarde.
- Where and when is Naval Reinosa vs Velarde played?
- Naval Reinosa vs Velarde is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.