Castro vs Selaya: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Riomar, Castro Urdiales
The Footlab AI model makes Castro the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Selaya. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castro wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castro vs Selaya?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Castro (1,651) and Selaya (1,630).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castro vs Selaya
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castro
Not enough data to predict the Castro lineup.
Selaya
4-3-3- CCarlos Ruiz López
- GGuille Ocejo
- JJairo Fernández Ortiz
- GGandarillas
- OOscar Perez
- DDaniel Ruiz Carral
- PPablo Herrero Fernández
- ÁÁlvaro Díez
- CChristian Cobo Ortiz
- JJulio Ruiz Barquin
- SSergio Abascal Martinez
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castro have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Selaya have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atlético Albericia(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Solares(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Naval Reinosa(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Escobedo(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atlético Albericia(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tropezón(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Castro wins, 2 draws, 1 Selaya win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Selaya 0-0 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Castro 3-1 Selaya | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Selaya 0-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Selaya 1-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Jan 9, 2022 | Castro 3-0 Selaya | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Feb 20, 2021 | Castro 0-1 Selaya | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Castro score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Selaya score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castro | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Selaya | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castro sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (5 points from 6 matches) and Selaya sit 9th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Selaya | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| 13 | Castro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Castro vs Selaya?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castro vs Selaya?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castro the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Selaya.
- Where and when is Castro vs Selaya played?
- Castro vs Selaya is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Riomar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.