Where and when is Nesebar vs Fratria played?

Nesebar vs Fratria is played on November 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Second League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Nesebar vs Fratria: prediction and stats

Second LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Nesebar

Nesebar

Fratria

The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Fratria. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Nesebar vs Fratria?

A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Nesebar (1,698) and Fratria (1,725).

Nesebar win45 %

Draw28 %

Fratria win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nesebar have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Fratria have 7, 6 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Nesebar
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Pirin Blagoevgrad(home)	7-0	Second League
Aug 16, 2026	Sportist Svoge(away)	1-0	Second League
Aug 10, 2026	Dobrudzha(home)	2-0	Second League
Aug 4, 2026	Montana(away)	1-3	Second League
Jul 25, 2026	Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home)	1-5	Second League

Fratria
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Beroe(home)	2-0	Second League
Aug 9, 2026	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away)	2-0	Second League
Aug 1, 2026	Rilski Sportist(home)	1-0	Second League
Jul 25, 2026	Marek(home)	0-1	Second League
Jul 10, 2026	Yantra 2019(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Nesebar win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Fratria win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 8, 2025	Nesebar 3-1 Fratria	Second League
Jan 25, 2025	Fratria 2-0 Nesebar	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 25, 2024	Fratria 1-0 Nesebar	Second League
Jul 3, 2024	Nesebar 2-2 Fratria	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Nesebar vs Fratria on Mar 8, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Nesebar score 3.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fratria score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Nesebar	3.7	1.1	7	7/15	11/15
Fratria	1.7	0.8	6	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Nesebar sit 3rd in Second League (9 points from 5 matches) and Fratria sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Nesebar	5	3	0	2	12	8	9
4	Fratria	4	3	0	1	5	1	9

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Nesebar vs Fratria?: The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Fratria.
Where and when is Nesebar vs Fratria played?: Nesebar vs Fratria is played on November 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Second League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.