Nesebar vs Fratria: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Nesebar
The Footlab AI model makes Fratria the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Nesebar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fratria wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nesebar vs Fratria?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Nesebar (1,666) and Fratria (1,696).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nesebar vs Fratria
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nesebar
4-3-3- 77S. Statev
- 99Kristiyan Parashkevov
- 11Daniel Cabanelas
- 8Viktor Kunev
- 22R. Ismailov
- 10V. Dotsev
- 14Dimitar Balinov
- 3D. Lastardzhiev
- 5P. Dimov
- 21S. Pergelov
- 13Martin Sheytanov
Fratria
4-3-3- 22G. Atanasov
- 17B. Kandoussi
- 7D. Aleksandrov
- 15M. Marinov
- 10T. Korablin
- 23S. Dyulgerov
- 44R. Stefanov
- 18D. Mihalev
- 11V. Boev
- 90V. Dijinari
- 69I. Iliev
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:06 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nesebar have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Fratria have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | CSKA Sofia II(home) | 0-0 | Second League |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Rodopa Smolyan(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Vihren(away) | 0-2 | Second League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Beroe(home) | 4-3 | Second League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(away) | 0-2 | Second League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Balkan Botevgrad(away) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Spartak Pleven(home) | 3-0 | Second League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pirin Blagoevgrad(away) | 2-1 | Second League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ludogorets II(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Nesebar win, 1 draw, 2 Fratria wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | Nesebar 3-1 Fratria | Second League |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Fratria 2-0 Nesebar | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Fratria 1-0 Nesebar | Second League |
| Jul 3, 2024 | Nesebar 2-2 Fratria | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Nesebar score 2.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Fratria score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nesebar | 2.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Fratria | 1.5 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nesebar sit 7th in Second League (18 points from 12 matches) and Fratria sit 4th (22 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 22 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
A question about Nesebar vs Fratria?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nesebar vs Fratria?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fratria the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Nesebar.
- Where and when is Nesebar vs Fratria played?
- Nesebar vs Fratria is played on November 14, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 14, 2026BeroevsVihren
- Nov 14, 2026Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsavsCSKA Sofia II
- Nov 14, 2026DobrudzhavsEtar Veliko Tarnovo
- Nov 14, 2026Pirin BlagoevgradvsMontana
- Nov 14, 2026Yantra 2019vsLudogorets II
- Nov 14, 2026MarekvsChernomorets 1919 Burgas
- Nov 14, 2026Rilski SportistvsHebar 1918
- Nov 14, 2026Sportist SvogevsSpartak Pleven