Nesebar vs Montana: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Nesebar
The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Montana. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nesebar vs Montana?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Nesebar (1,698) and Montana (1,626).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nesebar have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Montana have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pirin Blagoevgrad(home) | 7-0 | Second League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sportist Svoge(away) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Dobrudzha(home) | 2-0 | Second League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Montana(away) | 1-3 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home) | 1-5 | Second League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rilski Sportist(away) | 1-2 | Second League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Marek(home) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Yantra 2019(away) | 2-3 | Second League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Nesebar(home) | 3-1 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sportist Svoge(away) | 2-2 | Second League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nesebar win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Montana win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | Montana 3-1 Nesebar | Second League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Nesebar 1-3 Montana | Second League |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Montana 2-0 Nesebar | Second League |
| May 23, 2019 | Nesebar 1-2 Montana | Second League |
| Nov 26, 2018 | Montana 3-1 Nesebar | Second League |
| Mar 31, 2018 | Nesebar 1-1 Montana | Second League |
How many goals should we expect?
Nesebar score 3.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Montana score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nesebar | 3.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Montana | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nesebar sit 3rd in Second League (9 points from 5 matches) and Montana sit 8th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nesebar | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | Montana | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nesebar vs Montana?
- The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Montana.
- Where and when is Nesebar vs Montana played?
- Nesebar vs Montana is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 5, 2026BeroevsChernomorets 1919 Burgas
- Dec 5, 2026CSKA Sofia IIvsPirin Blagoevgrad
- Dec 5, 2026Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsavsLudogorets II
- Dec 5, 2026VihrenvsHebar 1918
- Dec 5, 2026Yantra 2019vsEtar Veliko Tarnovo
- Dec 5, 2026MarekvsSpartak Pleven
- Dec 5, 2026Rilski SportistvsFratria
- Dec 5, 2026Sportist SvogevsDobrudzha