Netherlands vs Germany: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League1Kick-off on September 24, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
The Footlab model makes Netherlands the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Germany. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Netherlands vs Germany?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Netherlands (1,798) and Germany (1,787).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Netherlands have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Germany have 11, 0 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Tunisia(away) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Sweden(home) | 5-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Japan(home) | 2-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Uzbekistan(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Algeria(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Ecuador(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Ivory Coast(home) | 2-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Curaçao(home) | 7-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | USA(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Finland(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Netherlands win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Germany win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | Germany 1-0 Netherlands | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Netherlands 2-2 Germany | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 26, 2024 | Germany 2-1 Netherlands | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Netherlands 1-1 Germany | Friendlies |
| Sep 6, 2019 | Germany 2-4 Netherlands | Euro Championship |
| Mar 24, 2019 | Netherlands 2-3 Germany | Euro Championship |
Last archived meeting: Germany vs Netherlands on Oct 14, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Netherlands score 2.8 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Germany score 2.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 2.8 | 0.8 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Germany | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Netherlands vs Germany?
- The Footlab model makes Netherlands the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Germany.
- Where and when is Netherlands vs Germany played?
- Netherlands vs Germany is played on September 24, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Philips Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.