Türkiye vs France: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League1Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, İzmir
The Footlab model makes France the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Türkiye. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Türkiye vs France?
France starts as the favourite with a 173-point Elo edge (1,862 vs 1,688).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Türkiye have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; France have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | USA(home) | 3-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Paraguay(home) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Australia(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Venezuela(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | FYR Macedonia(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | England(home) | 4-6 | World Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Norway(away) | 4-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Iraq(home) | 3-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Northern Ireland(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Türkiye win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 France win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2019 | France 1-1 Türkiye | Euro Championship |
| Jun 8, 2019 | Türkiye 2-0 France | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Türkiye score 2.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; France score 2.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 2.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| France | 2.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Türkiye vs France?
- The Footlab model makes France the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Türkiye.
- Where and when is Türkiye vs France played?
- Türkiye vs France is played on September 25, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.