Czechia vs Croatia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League1Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Andrův stadion, Olomouc
The Footlab model makes Croatia the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Czechia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Czechia vs Croatia?
Croatia starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,742 vs 1,594).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Czechia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Croatia have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Mexico(home) | 0-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 2026 | South Africa(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 12, 2026 | South Korea(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Guatemala(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Kosovo(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Ghana(home) | 2-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Panama(away) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | England(away) | 2-4 | World Cup |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Slovenia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Belgium(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Czechia win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Croatia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | Czechia 0-0 Croatia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Jun 9, 2025 | Croatia 5-1 Czechia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Jun 18, 2021 | Croatia 1-1 Czechia | Euro Championship |
| Jun 17, 2016 | Czechia 2-2 Croatia | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Czechia score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Croatia score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Croatia | 2.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Czechia vs Croatia?
- The Footlab model makes Croatia the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Czechia.
- Where and when is Czechia vs Croatia played?
- Czechia vs Croatia is played on September 26, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Andrův stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.