Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de la Maladière, Neuchâtel
The Footlab model makes Neuchatel Xamax FC the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Étoile Carouge. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Neuchatel Xamax FC (1,795) and Étoile Carouge (1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Neuchatel Xamax FC have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Étoile Carouge have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy(home) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Meyrin(away) | 0-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Étoile Carouge(away) | 1-0 | Challenge League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | FC WIL 1900(away) | 2-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | SC Kriens(home) | 3-2 | Challenge League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(away) | 0-0 | Challenge League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Collex-Bossy(away) | 2-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Neuchatel Xamax FC(home) | 0-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Yverdon Sport(away) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | FC Aarau(home) | 3-0 | Challenge League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Neuchatel Xamax FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Étoile Carouge win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Étoile Carouge 0-1 Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| May 11, 2026 | Neuchatel Xamax FC 3-0 Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Étoile Carouge 1-3 Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Étoile Carouge 0-2 Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Neuchatel Xamax FC 2-1 Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
| May 9, 2025 | Neuchatel Xamax FC 1-2 Étoile Carouge | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: Étoile Carouge vs Neuchatel Xamax FC on Aug 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Neuchatel Xamax FC score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Étoile Carouge score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Étoile Carouge | 1.3 | 1.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Neuchatel Xamax FC sit 2nd in Challenge League (9 points from 4 matches) and Étoile Carouge sit 6th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Étoile Carouge | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge?
- The Footlab model makes Neuchatel Xamax FC the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Étoile Carouge.
- Where and when is Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge played?
- Neuchatel Xamax FC vs Étoile Carouge is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de la Maladière, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.