Newcastle vs Sunderland: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab AI model makes Newcastle the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1. If Newcastle wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs Sunderland?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Newcastle (2,215) and Sunderland (2,145).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newcastle vs Sunderland
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
- 11H. Barnes
- 9Y. Wissa
- 23J. Murphy
- 28J. Willock
- 6Nico González
- 4S. Botman
- 3L. Hall
- 12M. Thiaw
- 67L. Miley
- 21L. Horníček
Sunderland
4-2-3-1- 18W. Isidor
- 34G. Xhaka
- 28E. Le Fée
- 27N. Sadiki
- 10N. Angulo
- 12T. Meunier
- 20N. Mukiele
- 4K. Danso
- 17Reinildo
- 32T. Hume
- 22R. Roefs
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:11 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Sunderland have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 3-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Newcastle win, 1 draw, 4 Sunderland wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Newcastle 1-2 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Sunderland 0-3 Newcastle | FA Cup |
| Mar 20, 2016 | Newcastle 1-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2015 | Sunderland 3-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Apr 5, 2015 | Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle vs Sunderland on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Sunderland score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Sunderland | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle sit 11th in Premier League (8 points from 6 matches) and Sunderland sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
A question about Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newcastle the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs Sunderland played?
- Newcastle vs Sunderland is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.