Tottenham vs Arsenal: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Tottenham. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arsenal wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 291-point Elo edge (2,459 vs 2,168).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tottenham vs Arsenal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tottenham
4-2-3-1- 19D. Solanke
- 16S. Tonali
- 17Sávio
- 8C. Gallagher
- 15L. Bergvall
- 20M. Kudus
- 6J. van Hecke
- 14A. Gray
- 13D. Udogie
- 5M. Senesi
- 31A. Kinský
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 29K. Havertz
- 41D. Rice
- 49M. Lewis-Skelly
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 7B. Saka
- 20N. Madueke
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 15E. Konsa
- 33R. Calafiori
- 4B. White
- 1David Raya
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:50 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tottenham have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Arsenal have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Lille(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 4-2 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tottenham win, 0 draws, 5 Arsenal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Tottenham 1-4 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Arsenal 4-1 Tottenham | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Arsenal 0-1 Tottenham | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Arsenal 2-1 Tottenham | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Tottenham 0-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Tottenham 2-3 Arsenal | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Tottenham score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Arsenal | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tottenham sit 19th in Premier League (3 points from 6 matches) and Arsenal sit 2nd (15 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
A question about Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tottenham vs Arsenal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arsenal the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Tottenham.
- Where and when is Tottenham vs Arsenal played?
- Tottenham vs Arsenal is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.