Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Crystal Palace. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aston Villa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,601 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Aston Villa starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (2,201 vs 2,061).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 44J. Manzambi
- 7J. McGinn
- 35João Gomes
- 47Alysson Edward
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 2M. Cash
- 22I. Maatsen
- 14Pau Torres
- 1Z. Suzuki
Crystal Palace
3-4-2-1- 14J. Mateta
- 3T. Mitchell
- 20A. Wharton
- 10Yeremy Pino
- 18D. Kamada
- 11D. McNeil
- 25A. Khalaili
- 26C. Richards
- 6J. Canvot
- 5A. Disasi
- 1D. Henderson
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 07:07 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Crystal Palace have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Viking(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Beşiktaş(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Aston Villa wins, 2 draws, 4 Crystal Palace wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | Crystal Palace 0-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Aston Villa 0-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Crystal Palace 3-0 Aston Villa | FA Cup |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Crystal Palace 4-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Aston Villa 2-2 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-2 Crystal Palace | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa on Jan 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Crystal Palace score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Crystal Palace | 1.5 | 1.8 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 10th in Premier League (12 points from 9 matches) and Crystal Palace sit 18th (7 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 7 |
A question about Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Crystal Palace.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace played?
- Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.