Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Crystal Palace. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Aston Villa starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (2,206 vs 2,106).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Crystal Palace have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Everton(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SC Freiburg(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Al Ula(home) | 3-1 | Como Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Como Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Aston Villa win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Crystal Palace win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | Crystal Palace 0-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Aston Villa 0-3 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Crystal Palace 3-0 Aston Villa | FA Cup |
| Feb 25, 2025 | Crystal Palace 4-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Aston Villa 2-2 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-2 Crystal Palace | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa on Jan 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Crystal Palace score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
| Crystal Palace | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2 | 7/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 20th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Crystal Palace sit 17th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
- The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Crystal Palace.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace played?
- Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.