Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 9Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa, Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe
The Footlab model makes Velez Sarsfield the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Newells Old Boys. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield?
Velez Sarsfield starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,939 vs 1,785).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newells Old Boys have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Velez Sarsfield have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(away) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Boca Juniors(home) | 2-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Independiente(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boca Juniors(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independiente(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Newells Old Boys win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Velez Sarsfield win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield 1-1 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| May 21, 2024 | Velez Sarsfield 1-0 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 3, 2023 | Newells Old Boys 1-0 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 3, 2022 | Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 9, 2021 | Newells Old Boys 1-2 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 13, 2021 | Velez Sarsfield 1-0 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Velez Sarsfield vs Newells Old Boys on May 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newells Old Boys score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Velez Sarsfield score 1.4 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newells Old Boys | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 1.4 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newells Old Boys sit 14th in Liga Profesional Argentina (15 points from 16 matches) and Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd (28 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 28 |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield?
- The Footlab model makes Velez Sarsfield the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Newells Old Boys.
- Where and when is Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield played?
- Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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