Newport County vs Plymouth: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 5Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 52%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Newport County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport County vs Plymouth?
Plymouth starts as the favourite with a 250-point Elo edge (1,938 vs 1,688).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport County have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Plymouth have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Coventry(home) | 2-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tavistock(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Newport County win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Plymouth win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2021 | Newport County 2-0 Plymouth | EFL Trophy |
| Nov 10, 2020 | Plymouth 3-1 Newport County | EFL Trophy |
| Feb 1, 2020 | Plymouth 1-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Aug 17, 2019 | Newport County 1-0 Plymouth | League Two |
| Nov 13, 2018 | Newport County 2-0 Plymouth | EFL Trophy |
| Apr 17, 2017 | Plymouth 6-1 Newport County | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Newport County vs Plymouth on Aug 31, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Plymouth score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Plymouth | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport County sit 3rd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Plymouth sit 2nd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Plymouth | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Newport County | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport County vs Plymouth?
- The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 52%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Newport County.
- Where and when is Newport County vs Plymouth played?
- Newport County vs Plymouth is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Rodney Parade, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.