Port Vale vs Newport County: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Vale Park, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab AI model makes Port Vale the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Newport County. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,831 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Port Vale vs Newport County?
Port Vale starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,864 vs 1,723).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Port Vale vs Newport County
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Port Vale
3-5-2- 11O. Hernández
- 36M. Watters
- 6J. Lawrence-Gabriel
- 3J. Headley
- 33G. Hall
- 10K. Dempsey
- 7G. Byers
- 25C. Humphreys
- 4J. Moon
- 2K. John
- 20M. Maroši
Newport County
4-2-3-1- 19G. Garner
- 10H. Biggins
- 6C. Brennan
- 24M. Dibley-Dias
- 23M. Adu-Poku
- 20Y. Bamba
- 22C. Norman
- 5L. Jenkins
- 4K. Cameron
- 12Joe Thomas
- 1J. Wright
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 06:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Port Vale have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Newport County have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Manchester City U21(home) | 5-0 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 24, 2026 | York(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Gillingham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | York(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Plymouth(home) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Port Vale wins, 0 draws, 3 Newport County wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | Port Vale 3-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Newport County 1-4 Port Vale | League Two |
| May 2, 2022 | Port Vale 1-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Dec 11, 2021 | Newport County 2-1 Port Vale | League Two |
| Mar 16, 2021 | Port Vale 2-1 Newport County | League Two |
| Nov 21, 2020 | Newport County 1-0 Port Vale | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Port Vale vs Newport County on Jan 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Port Vale score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Newport County score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Newport County | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Port Vale sit 23rd in League Two (12 points from 11 matches) and Newport County sit 16th (15 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 12 |
A question about Port Vale vs Newport County?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Port Vale vs Newport County?
- The Footlab AI model makes Port Vale the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Newport County.
- Where and when is Port Vale vs Newport County played?
- Port Vale vs Newport County is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Vale Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.