Port Vale vs Newport County: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Vale Park, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Newport County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Port Vale vs Newport County?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Port Vale (1,782) and Newport County (1,709).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Port Vale have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Newport County have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Murcia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Port Vale win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Newport County win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | Port Vale 3-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Newport County 1-4 Port Vale | League Two |
| May 2, 2022 | Port Vale 1-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Dec 11, 2021 | Newport County 2-1 Port Vale | League Two |
| Mar 16, 2021 | Port Vale 2-1 Newport County | League Two |
| Nov 21, 2020 | Newport County 1-0 Port Vale | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Port Vale vs Newport County on Jan 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Port Vale score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Port Vale sit 20th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Newport County sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Port Vale vs Newport County?
- The Footlab model makes Port Vale the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Newport County.
- Where and when is Port Vale vs Newport County played?
- Port Vale vs Newport County is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Vale Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.