Plymouth vs Swindon Town: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup South - 5Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Home Park, Plymouth
The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Swindon Town. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Plymouth vs Swindon Town?
Plymouth starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,914 vs 1,789).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Plymouth have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Swindon Town have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tavistock(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Plymouth win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Swindon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2023 | Swindon Town 3-1 Plymouth | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2022 | Swindon Town 1-3 Plymouth | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 12, 2021 | Plymouth 1-3 Swindon Town | EFL Trophy |
| Jan 26, 2021 | Swindon Town 0-2 Plymouth | League One |
| Nov 3, 2020 | Plymouth 4-2 Swindon Town | League One |
| Jan 1, 2020 | Plymouth 1-2 Swindon Town | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Swindon Town vs Plymouth on Jul 29, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Plymouth score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Plymouth sit 2nd in EFL Trophy (6 points from 3 matches) and Swindon Town sit 1st (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swindon Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Plymouth | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Plymouth vs Swindon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Swindon Town.
- Where and when is Plymouth vs Swindon Town played?
- Plymouth vs Swindon Town is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Home Park, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.