Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipNorth - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)G.F. Grigg Latham Park, Ydrenewydd / Newtown, Powys
The Footlab model makes Newtown AFC the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Denbigh Town. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Newtown AFC (1,647) and Denbigh Town (1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newtown AFC have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Denbigh Town have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guilsfield(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Penrhyncoch(home) | 5-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gresford Athletic(away) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Porthmadog(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ruthin Town(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bangor 1876(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Buckley Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Colwyn Bay(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Newtown AFC win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Denbigh Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Denbigh Town 1-0 Newtown AFC | FAW Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Newtown AFC 4-2 Denbigh Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Denbigh Town vs Newtown AFC on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newtown AFC score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Denbigh Town score 1.4 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newtown AFC | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Denbigh Town | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newtown AFC sit 5th in FAW Championship (7 points from 3 matches) and Denbigh Town sit 12th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town?
- The Footlab model makes Newtown AFC the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for Denbigh Town.
- Where and when is Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town played?
- Newtown AFC vs Denbigh Town is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at G.F. Grigg Latham Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.