Nocerina vs Melfi: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 23Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio San Francesco, Nocera Inferiore
The Footlab model makes Nocerina the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Melfi. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nocerina vs Melfi?
Nocerina starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,760 vs 1,600).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nocerina have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Melfi have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Ischia(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Monastir(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Flaminia(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atletico Lodigiani(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Latte Dolce(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone G |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2017 | Matera(home) | 0-3 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 30, 2017 | Foggia(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 23, 2017 | Taranto(home) | 1-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 15, 2017 | Messina(away) | 4-3 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 9, 2017 | Monopoli(away) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Nocerina score 0.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Melfi score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nocerina | 0.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Melfi | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nocerina vs Melfi?
- The Footlab model makes Nocerina the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Melfi.
- Where and when is Nocerina vs Melfi played?
- Nocerina vs Melfi is played on February 7, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio San Francesco, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.