Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Männiku staadion, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Kalju Nomme the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Nõmme United. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme?
Kalju Nomme starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (1,717 vs 1,519).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nõmme United have 6 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats; Kalju Nomme have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paide(away) | 1-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Hiiumaa(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Tammeka(home) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-5 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Laagri(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vaprus(home) | 3-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Poseidon(away) | 12-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 2-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tammeka(home) | 5-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nõmme United win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Kalju Nomme win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | Nõmme United 1-3 Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Kalju Nomme 7-1 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Kalju Nomme 3-0 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 19, 2024 | Nõmme United 0-4 Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
| May 28, 2024 | Kalju Nomme 1-1 Nõmme United | Meistriliiga |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Nõmme United 0-0 Kalju Nomme | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme on Jul 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nõmme United score 2.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Kalju Nomme score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme United | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Kalju Nomme | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nõmme United sit 8th in Meistriliiga (25 points from 24 matches) and Kalju Nomme sit 2nd (44 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kalju Nomme | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 19 | 44 |
| 8 | Nõmme United | 24 | 8 | 1 | 15 | 41 | 58 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme?
- The Footlab model makes Kalju Nomme the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Nõmme United.
- Where and when is Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme played?
- Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Männiku staadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.