Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Kuressaare linnastaadion, Kuressaare
The Footlab model makes FC Levadia Tallinn the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for Kuressaare. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn?
FC Levadia Tallinn is a heavy favourite: 1,840 Elo points against 1,469, a 371-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kuressaare have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; FC Levadia Tallinn have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tammeka(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(away) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kristiine JK(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Paide(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Paide(home) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 4-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Laagri(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Nõmme United(home) | 5-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Vaprus(away) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Kuressaare win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 FC Levadia Tallinn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Kuressaare 1-2 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Mar 8, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn 2-0 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Kuressaare 0-3 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 1, 2025 | FC Levadia Tallinn 2-0 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Kuressaare 1-2 FC Levadia Tallinn | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 8, 2025 | FC Levadia Tallinn 2-1 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
Last archived meeting: Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kuressaare score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FC Levadia Tallinn score 2.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 2.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kuressaare sit 9th in Meistriliiga (24 points from 24 matches) and FC Levadia Tallinn sit 1st (56 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 23 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 61 | 18 | 56 |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn?
- The Footlab model makes FC Levadia Tallinn the favourite at 70%, against 19% for a draw and 11% for Kuressaare.
- Where and when is Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn played?
- Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Tallinn is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Kuressaare linnastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.