Paide vs Trans Narva: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Paide linnastaadion, Paide
The Footlab AI model makes Paide the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Trans Narva. The most likely score is 1-1. If Paide wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paide vs Trans Narva?
Paide starts as the favourite with a 222-point Elo edge (1,699 vs 1,477).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Paide vs Trans Narva
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Paide
4-3-3- 77D. Luts
- 14M. Jobarteh
- 29D. Darboe
- 6Daniel Cabral
- 10M. Miller
- 28O. Hõim
- 3Victor Hugo dos Santos de Sá
- 2M. Lilander
- 4Pedro Andrade Drozina
- 27N. Baranov
- 12M. Meerits
Trans Narva
4-3-3- 10A. Gero
- 24Y. Betancor
- 7M. Velijev
- 48W. Awusi
- 6G. Šlein
- 8Stanislav Agaptšev
- 3T. Berardozzi
- 14A. Filatov
- 5C. Campagna
- 4A. Ivanyushin
- 30Íker Venteo
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paide have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Trans Narva have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Nõmme United(away) | 3-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Vaprus(home) | 2-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 1-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Tammeka(away) | 2-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Vaprus(away) | 2-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(away) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 2-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Kuressaare(away) | 1-3 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Paide wins, 2 draws, 1 Trans Narva win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Trans Narva 1-1 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| May 20, 2026 | Trans Narva 1-0 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Paide 1-0 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Trans Narva 1-1 Paide | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Trans Narva 2-3 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Paide 2-0 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
How many goals should we expect?
Paide score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Trans Narva score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paide | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Trans Narva | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paide sit 3rd in Meistriliiga (51 points from 30 matches) and Trans Narva sit 10th (20 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Paide | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 51 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 24 | 67 | 20 |
A question about Paide vs Trans Narva?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paide vs Trans Narva?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paide the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Trans Narva.
- Where and when is Paide vs Trans Narva played?
- Paide vs Trans Narva is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Paide linnastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.