Paide vs Trans Narva: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Paide linnastaadion, Paide
The Footlab model makes Paide the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 8% for Trans Narva. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paide vs Trans Narva?
Paide starts as the favourite with a 223-point Elo edge (1,706 vs 1,483).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paide have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Trans Narva have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme United(home) | 4-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kuressaare(home) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-4 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paide(home) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kompanii Marjamaa(home) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kalju Nomme(home) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nõmme United(away) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Paide win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Trans Narva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Trans Narva 1-1 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| May 20, 2026 | Trans Narva 1-0 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Paide 1-0 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Trans Narva 1-1 Paide | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Trans Narva 2-3 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Paide 2-0 Trans Narva | Meistriliiga |
How many goals should we expect?
Paide score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Trans Narva score 1.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paide | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Trans Narva | 1.8 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paide sit 4th in Meistriliiga (39 points from 23 matches) and Trans Narva sit 10th (17 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Paide | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 39 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 55 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paide vs Trans Narva?
- The Footlab model makes Paide the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 8% for Trans Narva.
- Where and when is Paide vs Trans Narva played?
- Paide vs Trans Narva is played on October 18, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Paide linnastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.