Norwich vs Bolton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Carrow Road, Norwich, Norfolk
The Footlab model makes Norwich the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Bolton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Norwich vs Bolton?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Norwich (1,907) and Bolton (1,902).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Norwich have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Bolton have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Cambridge United(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Preston(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NAC Breda(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Everton(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Norwich win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Bolton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2019 | Bolton 0-4 Norwich | Championship |
| Dec 8, 2018 | Norwich 3-2 Bolton | Championship |
| Feb 24, 2018 | Norwich 0-0 Bolton | Championship |
| Nov 4, 2017 | Bolton 2-1 Norwich | Championship |
| Apr 11, 2015 | Bolton 1-2 Norwich | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2014 | Norwich 2-1 Bolton | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Norwich score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Bolton score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Bolton | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Norwich sit 18th in Championship (0 points from 1 matches) and Bolton sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Norwich vs Bolton?
- The Footlab model makes Norwich the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Bolton.
- Where and when is Norwich vs Bolton played?
- Norwich vs Bolton is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Carrow Road, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.