Notts County vs Plymouth: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Meadow Lane, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Notts County. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Notts County vs Plymouth?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Notts County (1,830) and Plymouth (1,919).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notts County have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Plymouth have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Luton(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leicester(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tavistock(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Notts County win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Plymouth win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2017 | Plymouth 0-1 Notts County | League Two |
| Aug 16, 2016 | Notts County 1-2 Plymouth | League Two |
| Feb 27, 2016 | Plymouth 1-0 Notts County | League Two |
| Oct 11, 2015 | Notts County 0-2 Plymouth | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Plymouth vs Notts County on Feb 28, 2017
How many goals should we expect?
Notts County score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Plymouth score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Plymouth | 2.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Notts County sit 15th in League One (2 points from 2 matches) and Plymouth sit 22nd (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Notts County | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Notts County vs Plymouth?
- The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Notts County.
- Where and when is Notts County vs Plymouth played?
- Notts County vs Plymouth is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Meadow Lane, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.