Novara vs Trento: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 38Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Silvio Piola, Novara
The Footlab model makes Trento the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Novara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Novara vs Trento?
A very open match: only 64 Elo points separate Novara (1,757) and Trento (1,822).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Novara have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Trento have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Juventus U23(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alcione(away) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sampdoria(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Ospitaletto(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Treviso(home) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ospitaletto(home) | 2-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Modena(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Giana Erminio(home) | 1-2 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Novara win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Trento win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Trento 1-1 Novara | Serie C - Girone A |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Novara 1-1 Trento | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Novara 3-0 Trento | Serie C - Girone A |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Trento 1-3 Novara | Serie C - Girone A |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Trento 1-1 Novara | Serie C - Girone A |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Novara 0-3 Trento | Serie C - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Novara score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Trento score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Trento | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Novara sit 18th in Serie C - Girone A (0 points from 1 matches) and Trento sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Trento | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | Novara | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Novara vs Trento?
- The Footlab model makes Trento the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Novara.
- Where and when is Novara vs Trento played?
- Novara vs Trento is played on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Silvio Piola, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.