Novorizontino vs Sport Recife: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 25Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Sport Recife. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Novorizontino vs Sport Recife?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Novorizontino (1,958) and Sport Recife (1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Novorizontino have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Sport Recife have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 4-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Londrina(away) | 4-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avai(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Novorizontino win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Sport Recife win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Sport Recife 1-0 Novorizontino | Serie B |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Novorizontino 1-3 Sport Recife | Serie B |
| Jun 25, 2024 | Sport Recife 1-2 Novorizontino | Serie B |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Sport Recife 1-0 Novorizontino | Serie B |
| Apr 30, 2023 | Novorizontino 0-0 Sport Recife | Serie B |
| Aug 30, 2022 | Sport Recife 1-0 Novorizontino | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Sport Recife vs Novorizontino on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Novorizontino score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sport Recife score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Sport Recife | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Novorizontino sit 4th in Serie B (40 points from 24 matches) and Sport Recife sit 6th (38 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Novorizontino | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 21 | 40 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 32 | 22 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Novorizontino vs Sport Recife?
- The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Sport Recife.
- Where and when is Novorizontino vs Sport Recife played?
- Novorizontino vs Sport Recife is played on August 28, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.