Vila Nova vs Ceara: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 25Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiânia, Goiás
The Footlab model makes Vila Nova the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Ceara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Ceara?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Vila Nova (1,874) and Ceara (1,851).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vila Nova have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Ceara have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 6-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Nautico Recife(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 4-3 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Vila Nova win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Ceara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ceara 3-3 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Ceara 4-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Jun 10, 2024 | Vila Nova 3-2 Ceara | Serie B |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Vila Nova 3-1 Ceara | Serie B |
| Jul 20, 2023 | Ceara 1-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Oct 3, 2017 | Ceara 2-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Vila Nova score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Ceara score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Ceara | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vila Nova sit 3rd in Serie B (41 points from 24 matches) and Ceara sit 17th (28 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vila Nova | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 41 |
| 17 | Ceara | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 30 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vila Nova vs Ceara?
- The Footlab model makes Vila Nova the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Ceara.
- Where and when is Vila Nova vs Ceara played?
- Vila Nova vs Ceara is played on August 30, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.