Olympiakos vs Pafos: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Makareio Stadio, Lefkosía
The Footlab model makes Pafos the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Olympiakos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Olympiakos vs Pafos?
Pafos starts as the favourite with a 265-point Elo edge (2,021 vs 1,755).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Olympiakos have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Pafos have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Anorthosis(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| May 9, 2026 | AEL(away) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| May 1, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ethnikos Achna(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Akritas(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(home) | 3-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Olympiakos win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Pafos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Olympiakos 2-0 Pafos | 1. Division |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Pafos 2-1 Olympiakos | 1. Division |
| Jan 18, 2024 | Olympiakos 0-1 Pafos | Cup |
| Mar 7, 2023 | Olympiakos 1-1 Pafos | 1. Division |
| Dec 3, 2022 | Pafos 1-1 Olympiakos | 1. Division |
| Jan 15, 2022 | Olympiakos 1-2 Pafos | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Olympiakos score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Pafos score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Pafos | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Olympiakos sit 11th in 1. Division (40 points from 33 matches) and Pafos sit 4th (62 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pafos | 36 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 66 | 38 | 62 |
| 11 | Olympiakos | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 32 | 44 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Olympiakos vs Pafos?
- The Footlab model makes Pafos the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Olympiakos.
- Where and when is Olympiakos vs Pafos played?
- Olympiakos vs Pafos is played on December 19, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Makareio Stadio, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.