Pafos vs AEK Larnaca: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 16Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Stelios Kyriakides, Paphos
The Footlab AI model makes Pafos the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for AEK Larnaca. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pafos wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pafos vs AEK Larnaca?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Pafos (2,037) and AEK Larnaca (2,048).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pafos vs AEK Larnaca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pafos
4-3-3- 18Lelê
- 8Domingos Quina
- 20Biel
- 88Pêpê Rodrigues
- 26I. Šunjić
- 30V. Dragomir
- 4David Luiz
- 14N. Ioannou
- 3S. Mmaee
- 7Bruno Felipe
- 99R. Majecki
AEK Larnaca
4-2-3-1- 11R. Bajić
- 14A. Layouni
- 7Gus Ledes
- 20J. Repas
- 9Đ. Ivanović
- 6I. Pankov
- 15H. Miličević
- 3M. van der Hoorn
- 17K. Pileas
- 23S. Köhler
- 92A. Paleari
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 03:23 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pafos have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; AEK Larnaca have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Anorthosis(away) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 18, 2026 | AEL(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AEK Larnaca(away) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Olympiakos(home) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Nea Salamis(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Omonia 29is Maiou(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pafos(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Pafos wins, 3 draws, 1 AEK Larnaca win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 0-1 Pafos | 1. Division |
| May 16, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 2-2 Pafos | 1. Division |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pafos 1-1 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Pafos 1-2 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Pafos 1-1 AEK Larnaca | Super Cup |
| Oct 5, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 2-4 Pafos | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Pafos score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; AEK Larnaca score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pafos | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| AEK Larnaca | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pafos sit 4th in 1. Division (10 points from 5 matches) and AEK Larnaca sit 1st (12 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Pafos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
A question about Pafos vs AEK Larnaca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pafos vs AEK Larnaca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pafos the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for AEK Larnaca.
- Where and when is Pafos vs AEK Larnaca played?
- Pafos vs AEK Larnaca is played on January 2, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Stelios Kyriakides, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.